It additionally largely backed up the pondering of last week’s Washington Post bracket projection. Not everybody was on the suitable line, however the prime 16 seeds in that train had been the identical groups the committee tabbed a couple of days later.
Just a few fast takeaways, that are price no less than maintaining in thoughts a bit as Choice Sunday attracts nearer.
The Large 12’s profiles are smiled upon: All three groups that had been underseeded in final week’s projection got here from the Large 12. The committee pegged Kansas because the final of the No. 1 seeds (as an alternative of the most effective of the No. 2 seeds), whereas Iowa State and Kansas State each landed on the No. 3 line relatively than as No. 4 seeds.
The one-best clarification? Excessive-end victories. Kansas is 14-5 in Quadrant 1 video games, whereas Iowa State is 8-8 in these contests. The one different groups with eight Quad 1 triumphs coming into Tuesday had been Large 12 brethren Texas (9-6) and Baylor (9-7), in addition to Large Ten chief Purdue (9-4). In the meantime, Kansas State is 7-6 in Quad 1 video games, a sturdy displaying.
The Large East’s profiles may not be price as a lot as anticipated: Each Marquette and Xavier had been slotted as No. 4 seeds relatively than No. 3s, although in protection of final week’s effort, the Musketeers hadn’t but misplaced to Marquette. Connecticut, a metrics darling largely due to the way it plowed by nonconference play, wasn’t even talked about (although it’s arduous to think about the Huskies as a lot decrease than a No. 5 seed for now).
All three of these groups have nice résumés — loads sufficient high quality victories, respectable data away from residence and just one remotely questionable loss apiece (Connecticut at residence towards St. John’s, Marquette at residence towards Wisconsin and Xavier at DePaul). Don’t be surprised if certainly one of them finally ends up as a No. 3 seed come March 12. Multiple, although, is a stretch.
Be cautious of predictive metrics: There are six rankings included within the NCAA staff sheets — two results-based numbers, three predictive measures and the NET. Groups corresponding to Kansas State and Virginia had noticeably higher results-based numbers and wound up on the No. 3 line. UCLA, Tennessee and Connecticut veered the opposite approach and possibly wound up just a little decrease than anticipated. (UCLA Coach Mick Cronin, particularly, was a bit miffed).
In different phrases, be cautious about inserting an excessive amount of inventory in issues corresponding to KenPom rankings, the Sagarin rankings and ESPN’s BPI metric closely shaping the seeding of the sector. That’s good recommendation at any time, particularly so near Choice Sunday.
Final 4 included: Southern California, West Virginia, Mississippi State, Wisconsin
First 4 on the surface: New Mexico, Penn State, Utah State, North Carolina
Subsequent 4 on the surface: Michigan, Texas Tech, Arizona State, Virginia Tech
Shifting in: Kentucky, Samford, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, UC Irvine, Wisconsin
Shifting out: Furman, New Mexico, North Carolina, Northwestern State, UC Santa Barbara
Convention name: Large Ten (9), Large 12 (8), SEC (8), ACC (5), Large East (5), Mountain West (3), Pac-12 (3), American Athletic (2), West Coast (2)
Bracket projection: South vs. West; Midwest vs. East
Rutgers collected a helpful victory Saturday at Wisconsin. Now, the Scarlet Knights get two extra video games towards Large Ten groups scrambling to get into the sector: Thursday at residence towards Michigan and Sunday at Penn State. Triumphs could be doubly helpful, solidifying their place whereas hurting different groups across the fringe of the sector. … Connecticut has quietly received 4 of its previous 5 and after Wednesday’s residence recreation towards Windfall closes with St. John’s, DePaul and Villanova. The Huskies may very well be on a roll heading into the Large East event. …
It’s wanting an increasing number of like Virginia will spend back-to-back March weekends in Greensboro. … Texas A&M has two Quad 4 losses (towards Murray State and Wofford), however every thing else in its profile appears to be like good. The Aggies are within the prime 30 in all six metrics on the staff sheets and bolstered their résumé significantly with victories over Arkansas and Missouri final week.
Not that it particularly issues for bracketing functions, however Illinois has just one victory towards a staff within the prime half of the Large Ten standings (Feb. 11 towards Rutgers). … Max Abmas (bear in mind him from two years in the past?) and Oral Roberts are two video games away from an ideal run by the Summit League. It will be the second 18-0 league displaying within the Summit in as many seasons; South Dakota State went 18-0 final season. …
Wisconsin is within the prime 50 within the results-based metrics and owns a 5-6 report in Quadrant 1 video games. Its solely remotely shaky loss is a Nov. 29 setback at residence towards Wake Forest, which sits at No. 77 within the NET — two spots shy of shifting the sport into Quadrant 2. The Badgers aren’t nice, however on paper they’re higher than a lot of the sting of the sector. … For all Missouri has going for it, it will be sensible for the Tigers to keep away from many extra 0-2 weeks. They obtained stomped at Auburn and fell at residence to Texas A&M final week.
One surefire takeaway from the committee’s bracket reveal is the respect Houston is rightfully accorded. The Cougars aren’t going to slide from the No. 1 line simply due to a random loss down the stretch. … Duke and Michigan State have had seven postseason conferences since 1994: Twice within the Last 4 (1999 and 2015), as soon as within the Elite Eight (2019), twice within the Candy 16 (2005 and 2013) and twice within the spherical of 32 (1994 and 2022). A primary-round encounter could be a brand-name blockbuster, even when neither program is having fun with a classic season. …
Tennessee’s No. 3 seed within the bracket reveal already factored in its victory over Alabama. It didn’t account for its second loss to Kentucky. The Volunteers stay on the No. 3 line, however they’re 2-4 because the calendar turned to February. … Auburn’s résumé is a house victory over Arkansas, a 43-42 defeat of Northwestern on a impartial flooring and a bunch of Quadrant 2 triumphs. After Wednesday’s recreation at Ole Miss, the Tigers shut at Kentucky and Alabama earlier than enjoying host to Tennessee. There’s nonetheless some work to do.
A prediction you may take to the financial institution: The Northeast Convention winner will take part in a play-in recreation for the eleventh consecutive event. The NEC has no groups within the prime 300 of the NET and no groups within the prime 270 of any of the six staff sheet metrics (Fairleigh Dickinson tops out at No. 271 in power of report). … Miami is within the prime 15 of the results-based metrics on the staff sheet and thirty first within the NET. The Hurricanes most likely aren’t far off from a No. 4 seed. …
College of Charleston was bumped as much as a No. 11 seed to permit a play-in recreation on the No. 12 line. If there’s a mid-major staff with a gaudy report (at the moment 26-3) which may obtain some grace within the type of a play-in recreation invite (a la 2019 Belmont and 2021 Drake) in case of a convention title recreation loss, the Cougars are most likely it. … Kentucky doubled its Quadrant 1 victory whole final week by defeating Mississippi State in Starkville after which finishing a season sweep of Tennessee. The Wildcats aren’t within the clear but, however these outings will go a great distance in solidifying their postseason standing.
