Taiwan faces a $19 billion arms backlog, awaiting essential weapons — comparable to Harpoon anti-ship missiles and F-16 fighter jets — that in lots of circumstances aren’t as a result of arrive for years. Within the case of Harpoons, one congressional aide stated, the missiles aren’t prone to start arriving in actual numbers till 2027 on the earliest.
“That was the largest factor we heard from each main Taiwanese chief — issues over delays,” stated Gallagher, who met with Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen, her vp, protection minister, intelligence chief and different high safety officers in a four-day journey. “That’s troubling the Taiwanese, and I believe that’s unacceptable.”
Gallagher, who had by no means visited Taiwan earlier than, stated he got here away impressed by the urgency with which the federal government took the menace posed by Communist Occasion-led China and its fast-growing army.
“Our greatest probability of stopping an invasion of Taiwan, and of basically stopping World Conflict III, is to place precise exhausting energy on Taiwan … and, to paraphrase President Tsai, to make sure that day-after-day, when she wakes up, we’re growing the price of an invasion for [Chinese President] Xi Jinping,” he stated.
Gallagher, a former Marine Corps intelligence officer who deployed twice to Iraq, stated he intends to make use of the committee to attract consideration “to the urgency of arming Taiwan” robustly.
An invasion or perhaps a blockade of Taiwan, which makes 1 / 4 of the world’s semiconductors and greater than 90 p.c of probably the most superior chips, may set off immense disruptions to the worldwide economic system resulting in a recession that would rival the 2008 monetary disaster, some consultants warn.
Whereas Taiwanese officers don’t say they consider a Chinese language invasion is imminent, they’re nonetheless conscious of how tough it might be to defend their island towards a strong potential adversary simply throughout a 100-mile strait. Resupplying Taiwan with weapons in a battle could be close to inconceivable, consultants warn, and so equipping it earlier than the necessity arises is essential.
“We must be transferring heaven and earth to arm Taiwan to the tooth to keep away from a warfare,” Gallagher stated. “No one is aware of if and when Xi Jinping wakes up and decides to do that however all of the extra purpose to place in place a denial posture as rapidly as doable.”
Floor-launched Harpoon missiles which can be able to hitting ships with a 500-pound warhead from greater than 70 miles away are thought of a crucial functionality for Taiwan in a battle with China, which has the world’s largest navy. The primary announcement of an intent to promote Harpoons to Taiwan got here on the tail finish of the Trump administration. The second got here in September.
However Saudi Arabia paid for an earlier order of Harpoons and are thus forward of Taiwan within the supply queue. “Taiwan needs to be moved to the entrance of the road for the Harpoons,” Gallagher stated. For Saudi Arabia to obtain the missiles first “doesn’t make any strategic sense to me,” he stated.
Riyadh’s buy basically allowed Boeing to restart a dying manufacturing line, in accordance with the congressional aide and different folks accustomed to the matter. The price of restarting the road was about $500 million, stated one particular person, who spoke on the situation of anonymity due to the matter’s sensitivity.
Complicating issues, the Saudis paid for sea-based launchers, which isn’t what Taiwan wants. However “somebody must reimburse the Saudis for these launchers” even when the Saudis have been keen to step apart and let the Taiwanese obtain the missiles first, the aide stated.
Specialists say the sluggish tempo of arms deliveries is a operate of structural challenges arising out of how overseas army gross sales are accomplished. Within the Harpoon occasion, despite the fact that Taiwan paid the U.S. Navy $1.6 billion in Could 2021 for 400 Harpoon missiles and 100 coastal-defense launchers, the Navy nonetheless has not entered right into a contract with Boeing to start missile manufacturing, the particular person accustomed to the matter stated.
Gallagher stated he got here away from his four-day go to with a way that “the Taiwanese are doing every thing we may ask of them” when it comes to boosting their very own protection.
He famous that they’re growing their protection spending by a record 14 percent to 2.4 p.c of gross home product; many NATO nations nonetheless fall beneath the two p.c of GDP guideline. The spending hike adopted China’s aggressive response to the go to of then-Home Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) to Taiwan in August, firing ballistic missiles over the island and apparently simulating a maritime blockade of Taiwan.
Gallagher, effectively conscious of the furor brought on by Pelosi’s go to, stated he intentionally stored his personal go to quiet to have extra productive conferences. A senior U.S. protection official made a go to on the similar time, which leaked and was front-page information in Taiwan.
There was hypothesis a few potential go to by Home Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), which might increase Beijing’s ire. However, Gallagher stated, “I don’t know of any lively plans by Speaker McCarthy to go. If he desires to go, he definitely can.” It’s not for the Chinese language to “veto” any lawmaker’s plans, he added.
Gallagher stated he intends to carry a choose committee listening to in Taiwan — hopefully earlier than summer season after which report again to McCarthy on its findings. That may higher inform the speaker’s plans, and he and Minority Chief Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) may go to probably after Taiwan’s subsequent presidential election in early 2024.
China has already begun to forged a shadow over the election, Gallagher stated he was instructed. It’s a part of what Tsai, a member of the Democratic Progressive Occasion, calls “cognitive warfare” — an effort to mould the narrative to swimsuit its goals, he stated.
The opposition Nationalist Occasion, or Kuomintang, is in favor of hotter cross-strait relations and advantages by such a story, he stated.
Beijing is making an attempt to “persuade the folks of Taiwan that the DPP goes to recklessly take them into warfare, and that the People are simply utilizing Taiwan as a pawn — that when the preventing begins, we’re content material to let the Taiwanese die so as simply to decelerate China and we received’t do any of the preventing,” Gallagher stated.
Christian Shepherd contributed to this report.
